There has been much said about the rise of Reform, whether they are truly a new political force, or a mere protest party with little lasting electoral impact, similar to Ukip. Polling would suggest that the former is the case, with Reform being firmly positioned as the most popular party in Britain. Of course, polling often flatters smaller, protest parties and should be taken with a pinch of salt: people often poll one way, then vote another on election day.
The first major test for Reform, then, should be the recent elections in England. By any measure Reform passed with flying colours, picking up 643 council seats, gaining control of 10 councils. They won a parliamentary by-election by 6 votes, overturning a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 votes, and won two mayoralty elections with healthy majorities. These successes were in areas such as Durham, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, Northamptonshire, Doncaster, Derby, Kent and so on— all former centres of mining or industry; all left to rot in the wake of neoliberalism. The result of this is the collapse in support for Labour, with many voters citing cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance and PIP as reasons for switching votes.
While these results are of concern in themselves, they should be of particular concern to us in Wales given the Senedd elections in May 2026. It is no secret that Reform intend to use the Senedd elections as a jumping-off point for the General Election that must come by 2029. The Welsh elections have some noteworthy distinctions, which may even work in favour of Reform.
First it is important to understand that Senedd members will be voted in using a Closed Party List PR, where 16 constituencies will each elect 6 members. Voters will vote for a party, not an individual candidate. This compensates for the distorting effects of First Past the Post, allowing for a Senedd which is more representative of popular opinion.Current polling points toward a three-way tie between Labour, Plaid Cymru, and Reform, with Labour having a slight lead. Is this likely to be the outcome? Remember, this effectively means Reform takes 24% of Senedd seats. My contention is that as things stand, yes, unless left of Labour forces are able to lead the fight against Reform.
Since its inception in 1999, the Senedd has been led by Labour and thus, very much represents the ‘establishment’ party in Wales. Plaid Cymru is seeking to establish itself as the Left-of-Labour choice, having already publicly called for a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as demanding control of the Crown Estates, and residuals from HS2. Reform is positioning itself as the ‘anti-establishment’ party, as both others have been in Government recently.
It is difficult to overstate how dominant Labour have been in Wales over the last century. Since 1945, Welsh Labour have usually held around three quarters of Westminster Parliament seats, and Labour has been continuously in government in the Senedd since its foundation. Since the era of New Labour, the party in Wales has always sought to distance itself from UK Labour, with Rhodri Morgan’s ‘clear red water’ being the best description of this. The reality has been somewhat different. Since the departure of Mark Drakeford as Welsh Labour leader, things only got worse with the scandal surrounding his replacement, Vaughan Gething. While Gething’s replacement, Eluned Morgan, has attempted to connect with the public through a ‘listening tour’, it is questionable how successful this has been.
Welsh Labour finds itself today in uncharted territory: for the first time it has a genuine fight on its hands to win the Senedd election. With around one third of current Labour MSs intending to step down in 2026, the party may not have the stomach for a fight. At a Morning Star Conference I attended in February, a Labour MS was asked what the party’s plan is to turn around and fight Reform in the elections. The response was that “the Party needs to have some difficult conversations”. Not convincing. Recently, the First Minister has tried to distance herself from Starmer and says she will fight for Wales even if it means fighting Labour.
Whether this sentiment is genuine or a last-gasp attempt to salvage an election result, there is no denying the reality that Wales is suffering. Like the areas in England where Reform has made gains, many parts of Wales are former mining and industrial areas which have been allowed to decay and decline by successive governments, both Labour and Tory. The debacle in Port Talbot with Tata Steel is only the latest episode in a long running drama of Wales being sacrificed on the altar of neoliberalism.
This does not bode well for Labour, whom many blame for this as the establishment party in Wales. The nationalisation of British Steel in Scunthorpe will be seen as a real gut punch by the Welsh given that, when asked by Plaid Cymru about calling for the nationalisation of Tata Steel, the First Minister’s response was to scold the Party and refer to nationalisation as a ‘pipe dream’. These are exactly the conditions in which Reform will thrive– a fact they are aware of given they launched their 2024 General Election campaign in Merthyr Tydfil. For context, Merthyr is a town with a strong radical socialist– even communist– tradition. It was the site of the Merthyr Rising, the first time the Red Flag was raised in Britain and was the parliamentary seat of Keir Hardie. It was once ‘the Iron Capital of the World’ and later a centre for mining. It is now a realistic target for a far-right party. Indeed, it is in the Valleys where Reform seem to be particularly strong.
In other areas of Britain, Labour may have been able to make the case for itself as the anti-Reform vote, the ‘tactical option’. The problems it faces are twofold: the nature of the multi-member constituencies means that the spoiler effect will be lessened, and the ready-made left-of-Labour platform of Plaid Cymru may prove to be the more tempting option to some, particularly among the city-dwelling university-educated populations in South Wales who have already been turning towards Plaid in recent years.
What, then, should be the communist response to the threat of Reform? Clearly, it cannot be left to Labour to lead a response. While it would be premature to propose a full electoral strategy, there are steps we can take today.
We must engage with Reform supporters. This does not mean bussing in protestors from Cardiff to picket a meeting in the Valleys, which will only deepen the feeling of condescension and resentment felt in left behind areas towards cities, a feeling which reactionary forces thrive on. Blanket labelling of these people as ‘racist’ and ‘fascist’ achieves nothing except further cementing the position of Reform.
Firstly, a line should be drawn between Reform as a party, and their supporters. Polls indicate that there are policies such as nationalisation of utilities, and heavier taxation on the wealthy that are supported by the majority of Reform voters, policies which are undoubtedly progressive. That Reform are suddenly calling for the nationalisation of Thames Water and British Steel– however disingenuously– shows that they understand this gap between the party and its supporters, that these supporters desire a turn from liberalism. We can also offer that, but with a sincerity the likes of Farage and Lowe can’t. These are the issues on which we can find common ground. We can speak to people at local events, at street stalls, in trade unions. We can expose Reform not to be an anti-establishment party which represents the working people, but as a party which seeks to continue the Thatcherite policies that started Wales on this trajectory.
Aside from the above-mentioned policies, there are myriad others that we can campaign on; policies that are popular among the average member of the public, but that cannot be seriously backed by Reform– or even in some cases Labour– given their financial backing.
According to the above linked poll, 73% of Reform voters believe that ‘ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation’s wealth’. We can propose policy that directly addresses this issue, including reform or replacement of the Council Tax system and removing VAT on essential goods, both of which are effectively a form of regressive taxation. Increase in council housing stock– whether by building new stock or buying up of private property– as well as caps on rents which have skyrocketed in recent years.
Since 2022 we have seen a rise in the already excessive profits of supermarkets and of energy companies, using the excuse of the war in Ukraine to increase their profit margins by an order of magnitude. We can highlight this and argue for the taxation of this wealth, and not on the already squeezed incomes of the working class. We can use that money to invest in bringing back vital industry to Wales, revitalising the steel industry for example. These policies would do far more to alleviate poverty and build wealth in Wales than anything Reform have to offer.
There is still time, but there is no time to lose.
Siddharth Pandey is a member of the Young Communist League’s Wales branch
