With the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2 taking place and bringing us closer to an ever-growing conflict, which can spill over the whole world at any moment, we have seen the media inventing a reality, a terrible caricature of actual interests. This cartoonish analysis of events does not explain and bring light to the situation, but instead sidesteps actual interests and mystifies them.
Over the course of the last couple of days, we have only heard one narrative: that Russia must have sabotaged their own pipelines. But what evidence and reasons has the media given us for making such a claim?
The first reason they give, is that they claim Russia sabotaged their own pipeline in order to further “continue the energy war” and stop the transfer of gas from Russia to Europe. But since Russia has stopped the flow of gas in Nord Stream 1 months ago, and Nord Stream 2 never came into operation, this claim is dubious at best, and an outright deception at worst. If Russia wanted to stop the flow of gas, all they had to do was to turn a valve and shut it off. There was no need to blow up their own infrastructure, on which they spent billions of dollars.
The second reason given to us, is that Russia blew up its own infrastructure in order to intimidate the West. That Russia blew up its biggest source of power and leverage over the West, in order to intimidate the West, is an absolutely absurd statement, because it makes no strategic sense. Countries do not blow up their own source of leverage and power to intimidate others. In fact, the pipelines gave Russia the power to leverage gas and oil in the coming difficult winter, which would have put Russia in a particularly advantageous position strategically. Both explanations are in the realm of the unbelievable. To put these conspiracy theories forward as truth, is to insult our intelligence.
Is it possible that someone else could be behind the sabotage? Is there anyone who would have an economic and political interest in sabotaging Europe’s ability to receive oil from Russia? What does the United States have to gain from such sabotage?
In 2014, Condoleezza Rice, the former Secretary of State for the United States, said: “But now we need to have tougher sanctions, and I am afraid at some point this is going to probably have to involve oil and gas. The Russian economy is vulnerable. 80% of the Russian exports are in oil, gas and minerals. People say that the Europeans will run out of energy. Well, the Russians will run out of cash before the Europeans run out of energy. And I understand that it is uncomfortable to have an effect on business ties in this way, but this is one of the few instruments that we have. Over the long run, you want to change the structure of energy dependence. You want to depend more on the North American energy platform, the tremendous bounty of oil and gas that we are finding”.
Here we have a motive. The Unites States has invested heavily in oil production in recent decades. For this investment to pay off, the United States needs the European market to be decoupled from the ability to import cheap oil and gas from Russia.
Biden had also made ominous threats regarding the very pipeline that was sabotaged: “If Russia invades… then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
When a reporter asked: “But how will you do that, exactly, since… the project is in Germany’s control?”
Biden responded: “I promise you; we will be able to do that”.
There are several countries that have an interest in cutting off Germany from Russia. Major candidates are Poland, Ukraine, Norway, Denmark, France, USA and UK.
Germany is approaching an energy crisis this winter, and Russia could have used the pipeline as a bargaining chip: “if you pull your support for Ukraine, we turn on the gas”.
Protesters and opposition politicians have already been taking up this slogan, and the support behind the idea will only increase this winter. The US has already doubled its export of natural gas to Europe compared to last year. Going from 2 billion cubic feet per day, to now over 8 billion cubic feet per day. The Nord Stream pipelines threatened this new and incredibly profitable state of affairs.
Whilst we can’t say who did this without investigation, US intelligence is closely intertwined with the security apparatus of all these countries, and would most likely have green-lit this.
Considering the proximity to Denmark, it would be foolish to assume that the Danish intelligence community did not know about this, and unknowingly let this vessel through.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) is closely linked to US intelligence, and the sabotage was conducted in international waters a short way from Bornholm, the same place that BALTOPS conducted underwater drone testing back in June.
We must think critically when the media is trying to make this a murder mystery, where anyone who presumes to point a finger at anyone but Russia, is seen as conspiratorial. Whilst we can’t know exactly who did it, we certainly know whose interests it would serve.
International Department, Danmarks Kommunistiske Ungdom